2015 Colorado Rapids Preview – Expectations

This year is no different than the others in that we might have some idea of what to expect, but we'll be damned if we can give anything resembling an informed prediction. The Rapids this year are meant to be a team still on the downslope, just like they were after the 2012 season in Oscar Pareja's second season with the team. That team managed to reboot the entire roster in an off-season and the second-year coach grew enough to lead his team to a surprising playoff berth. All of those pieces for such a repeat are in place, but can the Rapids pull that sort of magic out of their hats after a season arguably even more disappointing than the 2012 campaign?

We'll just say that expectations are much lower than last season's were.

Our Expectations

Earlier in the week, I put out a poll asking Rapids fans where they expected the team to finish in the Western Conference this season. Early returns are, to say the least, not particularly optimistic. Last season, our poll gave answers ranging all over the table, with some people even suggesting a shot at the Supporter's Shield was possible after the 2013 season. As always, though, the previous season can tend to taint the prospect of a future one, and Rapids fans voted no higher than mid-table this time around.

The poll as of this writing saw 83 votes cast, with nearly all of them in the bottom half of the table, and the vast majority of them either pegging the Rapids as a very low playoff contender or as just barely missing out of the playoffs. A whopping 72% of the votes cast were for 5th-7th place. And unlike last year, the optimism isn't even there enough for a single person to have thrown a vote in for 1st or 2nd place. (There were two people who thought they could stretch their way to third, however!)

Everyone Else's Expectations

If Colorado Rapids fans are guarded, yet optimistic about a potential playoff spot for this team, just about everyone else in MLS is exactly the opposite. After last season, the Rapids are being widely predicted for a bottom-four spot in the Western Conference by just about everyone who has a preview out there.

ProSoccerTalk felt the same way, with every single one of their six writers picking the Rapids out of the playoff picture. Four of them have the Rapids eighth or worse. Interestingly, only one of them also has Pablo Mastroeni listed as his likely first coach fired this season.

The same as last season, Bovada has the Colorado Rapids' odds of winning the MLS Cup near the bottom of the league at 50/1.

Best Case Scenario

It's not so outlandish to think that everything could click for this team.

More importantly that that, though: in the best case scenario, Pablo Mastroeni has his breakthrough as a coach, reaching the same level of coaching awareness that Oscar Pareja reached in his second season. Mastroeni's line-ups become more consistent and his tactics remain in tune with the system the team was using in preseason. It's likely not going to be a shift to coaching genius, but consistency and trust in his best players were the things lacking the most last year in his coaching, and a simple addition of those two elements would transform him from a bad coach into, at the very least, a mediocre one.

That's likely the best case scenario we can expect from a second-year man like Pablo, and it, along with the players listed above doing what they can do, could even be enough to propel this undeniably talented team as high as 3rd in the West. Even in the wildest dreams of Rapids supporters, a Shield run is never going to happen, but a bit of luck and this team may surprise a lot of people.

Worst Case Scenario

In the worst case scenario, it's a very simple equation: Pablo turns out to be the dud of a coaching prospect that he looked throughout all of last season. Instead of improving, he continues to stick with the stubborn ways that slowly degraded the 2014 season: playing players out of position, changing formations at a whim, throwing crap at a wall to see what sticks, and generally playing unappealing soccer in every way he can think of to milk points out of his team.

It's nearly impossible to assume that the Rapids will end up with fewer points or with more losses than last season because of the uptick in talent that this 2015 squad has — even the most pessimistic Rapids fan would have to admit that the 2015 Rapids on paper are far superior to the team that gave Nick Labrocca 2400 minutes — but there's still plenty of chances for the Rapids to bungle this season up and end up comfortably out of the playoff spots by the time October hits.

Burgundy Wave Predictions

Just like last season, I asked Burgundy Wave's contributors to give me their thoughts on how they feel the season is going to go. Their answers are, as expected, mostly lower in the table, but with a bit of a mix of pessimism and optimism. Interestingly, only one of us picked the Rapids to finish outside the playoffs. (Damnit, Richard!)

Well, not much more we can say. The new CBA has been agreed upon and there will be Colorado Rapids soccer kicking off tomorrow. Even if nobody can agree quite what to expect, the 20th season of both Rapids and Major League Soccer is going to be a fun one, that's for certain. Go Rapids!

Check out the other parts of our Rapids Season Preview: