Colorado Rapids FO Run It Back? It Would Not Be Unheard Of.

COMMERCE CITY – The Burgundy Boys are potentially on their way to finishing last in Major League Soccer in 2023. Having missed the playoffs last year, it would be crazy for the Colorado Rapids FO to run it back in 2024, right? It would not be the first time an MLS team has kept a technical staff together under these circumstances.

Lots of Rapids fans are fed up with the season and one or more people at the club. President Pádraig Smith had a press conference on Monday afternoon. It was much anticipated after an outcry by some in the fanbase for accountability and media criticism of the club’s recent failings. Smith affirmed his belief in The Rapids Way (which is now six years old), blamed Jack Price’s and Diego Rubio’s injuries, and stated he is holding everyone at the club accountable.

Placing blame and speculating about firings:

Regardless of how fans felt about that 25+ minutes of audio, there’s a general agreement something needs to change for the club to find long-term sustainable success. KSE is not selling the team. A downtown stadium is years away, even if the club announced it now. Smith and Chief Business Officer Wayne Brant have the trust of Josh Kroenke. Fan disapproval be damned, they’re not going anywhere. What then can change?

If you ask me, Smith is the most responsible for the failings of 2023. He’s been the top executive at the club since 2018. He made decisions to move on from several key players from the 2021 team that finished top of the conference in the regular season. It’s his signings since that have led the roster that’s third to last in MLS right now.

Perhaps the easiest scapegoat, fairly or unfairly, is head coach Robin Fraser followed up maybe by Sporting Director Fran Taylor. Both were hand picked by Smith. Burgundy Wave has heard whispers of growing frustration from players with training and game plans. Are they fed up with losing, this year, the coaching staff, or something else?

This got me thinking: The Rapids couldn’t just keep all the staff in place, make a handful of player changes in the winter, and run it back in 2024 hoping things will be better? Right?

I went down an MLS history rabbit hole to see how every Wooden Spoon winner has handled finishing last in the league. As a former PhD candidate, who better to analyze and regression analysis the crap out of MLS history?

Researching Wooden Spoon history to find precedent:

First, here’s a Google Sheet of every team to that finished last in MLS history. The Wooden Spoon’s technically only been around since 2015, but I went all the way back to 1996. I documented the head coach for each Spoon winner, whether they were retained by the start of the following year, and whether they missed the playoffs the previous year (just like the Rapids last season). I added some notes for context.

For certain teams/years, I also documented the relevant front office staff. This was a bit tough given MLS 1.0 did not have the organizational structure and roles we see today globally in the sport. The key information I am looking for is which MLS teams finished last and kept their technical staff together, especially when they had consecutive bad seasons.

Data and analysis:

2022 was the 27th season of Major League Soccer. In 27 years, 17 of the teams to finish last did not retain the head coach who began that season for the following season. One of those was the 1996 Rapids (“Wooden Spoon originals, you’ll never sing that!”), with Bob Houghton resigning before the final game of the season. Roy Wegerle of the 1994 USMNT World Cup team lost his one game in charge as interim coach.

You win the Spoon, you’re likely getting sacked. If not, it’s probably because you’re in your first year at the club.

Of the nine teams that missed the playoffs the year before finishing last, only three retained their head coach. All three were in their first year with the club: Ray Hudson at D.C. United in 2002, Sigi Schmid at Columbus Crew in 2006 and Veljko Paunovic at Chicago Fire in 2016. No coach who was with the team the prior season to miss the playoffs went on to win the Spoon and then keep his job.

You miss the playoffs one year and win the Spoon the next, you get fired.

Of the nine seasons the Spoon winner retained their head coach the following year, five featured a first year head coach, four had a coach or executive who did not make it to the end of the following season, and three won a trophy within the next two years. All nine teams meet at least one of those criteria.

You can win the Spoon and keep your job. But you need to get better next year. You should be building towards winning a trophy.

FC Cincinnati in 2020 is hard to categorize for many reasons. COVID-19 happened. They started the season with an interim coach because Ron Jans allegedly said the n-word and resigned amid an investigation in February. They’re such an outlier that I’m ignoring them.

Historic parallels to the 2023 Rapids:

Colorado missed the playoffs last year with an established front office and coaching staff. They kept the band together for this year. If they win the Spoon this year and keep the head coach and top exec for the start of 2024, is that a first in MLS?

Yes.

There’s three examples I would like to highlight of Spoon winners where accountability was lacking and it took years to get it right, if that:

Toronto FC in their expansion season in 2007, San Jose Earthquakes in their reboot/expansion season in 2008 and the Chicago Fire in 2016.

Mo Johnston moved from TFC head coach to Director of Football after one year. He proceeded to burn through coaches and players as the team was bad for their first five seasons.

Frank Yallop and John Doyle were mediocre but hung around San Jose, overachieving to win the 2012 Supporters’ Shield. This was under the ownership of Jon Fisher, who also owns the Oakland Athletics. He’s estimated to be a multibillionaire and spends little on the Quakes. Sound familiar?

Lastly, General Manager Nelson Rodríguez and head coach Veljko Paunović were together in Chicago from 2016-19. They made the playoffs once in four years. The Fire were sold in September 2019. They might be the only MLS team with worse history than the Rapids since 2010. They’ve only made the playoffs twice and haven’t advanced in the playoffs since 2009. At least Rapids fans have that shootout win against LA Galaxy from 2016.

Three consistently bad teams with owners who leave their executives alone regardless of poor results. Two spent big and were still terrible. The other had a rich owner who chose not spend.

Conclusion: Is there any hope?

There’s multiple examples of Spoon winners turning it around in short order.

Peter Nowak was the third permanent head coach in three years for a D.C. United team that won the spoon in 2000 and 2002. They went on to win MLS Cup in 2004. That team was stacked though and they hit on big moves acquiring Christian Gómez and Jaime Moreno midseason.

Sigi Schmid won the Spoon his first year in Columbus in 2006 and won the double two years later.

D.C. United won the U.S. Open Cup in 2013 when they had one of the worst regular seasons in MLS history with 16 points in 34 games.

Have all your other moves work out great, have an all-time great head coach, or abandon league play and focus on a cup run, and a Spoon winner can quickly win a trophy.

Is this plausible for Colorado? Rafael Navarro and Sidnei Tavares need to hit. They need to get healthy. Given the situation with fellow bottom dwellers TFC and Inter Miami, not finishing last would be proof of concept that these midseason moves are a step in the right direction.

If they do finish last, the person most likely to lose their job before season’s end is Fraser. If he’s retained, the Rapids mostly resemble the 2008-13 Quakes and 2016-19 Fire. One was a paper tiger that had one overachieving great year. The other got so bad the club was sold and completely reset. They’re still rebuilding four years later.

Every team that finishes last in MLS has issues contributing to that failure. Those who don’t act have been doomed to perennial mediocrity. The inaction is evidence of a greater issue holding the club back.

Colorado’s compounding flaws underlie their on-field failures and the fanbase’s distrust in the ability to course correct. I increasingly believe Fraser is unfairly the most likely to go. If the deeper issues remain, will it matter? Most supporters don’t see how The Rapids Way leads to being a perennial playoff team, let alone a second MLS Cup.

Photo Credit: Antonia Geiger, emdashphoto.com.

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