Robin Fraser Out: Colorado Rapids Part Ways With Head Coach

Apart from the leadership of the club. Questions need to be asked of our scouting department. Mitch Murray has been with the team since 2014 and he has struggled to discover players outside of MLS.

Of all his seasons only the following players have made/had notable impacts. Kevin Doyle, Gashi, Price, Wilson, Yarbrough (maybes: Galván, Ronan).

Can you succeed in MLS without scouting success in Central and South America?

What also has happened to the youth talent pipeline? Rapids 2 is having success with many homegrowns. But seems to be a bigger leap for MLS Next to MLS than it used to be.

This from Daily Kickoff’s J. Sam Jones is bang on target. Robin Fraser the sacrificial lamb, when it is ownership or the GM who are responsible for moves since 2021 that should be fired. I quote:
“Another week gone, another manager gone. Colorado’s Robin Fraser has joined ex-Portland coach Gio Savarese, ex-Inter Miami coach Phil Neville, ex-Toronto coach Bob Bradley, ex-Chicago Fire coach Ezra Hendrickson and ex-Red Bulls coach Gerhard Struber on the relatively long (and still likely growing in the near future!) list of exiled bosses. There are obviously different circumstances surrounding each departure, but you can basically split them up into two categories:
A.) “Lost the locker room.”
B.) “We didn’t know what else to do so we hit the ‘Fire Coach’ button, that will fix it, right?”
It’s always hard to know exactly who is in which category. We don’t know the day-to-day inner workings at each club, and we don’t know the day-to-day feelings of each player. Sometimes that information becomes public and you get a clear(ish) picture of a team that needed a reset. Most of the time we don’t have that. In this case, we don’t have that. Instead, it feels like we have a Hail Mary attempt at convincing fans everything is about to change for the better.
If you’ve been checking in with us here at The Daily Kickoff this season, you’ll probably have some idea of our stance on managers. Basically, academic research (and just kind of thinking about it for a few minutes) suggests very, very few managers are any kind of significant deviation from the mean. The quality of the roster matters far more than the person coaching it.
A select few coaches have a genuine impact for the better. Even still, most of that impact is less about tactics and passion than it is about a manager’s ability to recruit and draw in quality players. A few more managers have moments of conflict with their players or organization where the work environment becomes untenable. But, even then, it’s less about how “good” a manager is at coaching and more about finding someone else who will likely be equally ineffective, but is at least enjoyable to be around.
Robin Fraser is a decent case study for this. Did he suddenly become “bad” at coaching over the last two seasons? Remember, the Rapids finished first in the West in 2021 after earning 61 points. They’ve earned 62 points across the better part of two seasons since then. It seems doubtful Fraser started mailing it in after 2021. I can’t envision a world where he figured he reached the peak of his career by getting knocked out of the playoffs after one game and called it a day.
I can envision a world where a team starts to struggle after jettisoning key pieces from a 61-point team and fails to adequately replace them or build on the successful elements they had in place. In the offseason after their 61-point season, they had three open DP spots. It took until April, but they eventually used one of them to bring in Gyasi Zardes. He remained their only DP that year.
Instead of building, their biggest offseason move actually involved sending off starting midfielder Kellyn Acosta to LAFC. Acosta started 28 regular season games for the MLS Cup and Supporters’ Shield winners and even scored in MLS Cup. The Rapids struggled to find a true replacement, eventually sent Mark-Anthony Kaye to Toronto and saw 2021 centerpiece Jack Price start just 14 games due to injury issues. That 61-point team had its midfield evaporate, saw some luck in their underlying numbers head the other way and finished with 43 points on the year. Sounds about right, doesn’t it?
This year’s team continued to deal with injuries, got even more unlucky – American Soccer Analysis’ expected points model has them at around 32 points instead of 19, the second largest disparity in MLS – and has struggled to see roster risks like the Kevin Cabral trade turn into rewards. If any of that is on Fraser, it’s hard to see exactly how from the outside, which made club president Pádraig Smith’s letter to fans following Fraser’s departure interesting.
“It’s unacceptable for the type of club we want to be,” Smith wrote of recent performances. “But, more crucially, it’s unacceptable because this is a team that’s capable of much, much more than that.
“We’ve seen what the potential of this team can be when we play to our strengths and follow the principles that saw us top the Western Conference not that long ago. Finishing with a club-record points total in 2021 wasn’t by luck; it was the result of a systematic approach that built on progress made year over year from 2018 to 2021.
“We’ve since deviated from that path, however, and that’s ultimately what this change is about: getting back on track.”
To be honest, the statement brings up a lot of questions. Mainly, what in Smith’s eyes did Fraser start to do all that differently year over year? Maybe the answer is obvious. But from a 20,000-foot view, the roster lost key pieces, the key pieces that were left picked up injuries, the roster as a whole didn’t improve, and the team started missing chances that, on a different timeline, have them right on the edge of the playoff line or better in the West.
So, what now? And how does the next person in charge align with what the Rapids supposedly want in the way that Fraser didn’t? Maybe those answers are clear. For now though, all that’s left are questions.Another week gone, another manager gone. Colorado’s Robin Fraser has joined ex-Portland coach Gio Savarese, ex-Inter Miami coach Phil Neville, ex-Toronto coach Bob Bradley, ex-Chicago Fire coach Ezra Hendrickson and ex-Red Bulls coach Gerhard Struber on the relatively long (and still likely growing in the near future!) list of exiled bosses. There are obviously different circumstances surrounding each departure, but you can basically split them up into two categories:
A.) “Lost the locker room.”
B.) “We didn’t know what else to do so we hit the ‘Fire Coach’ button, that will fix it, right?”
It’s always hard to know exactly who is in which category. We don’t know the day-to-day inner workings at each club, and we don’t know the day-to-day feelings of each player. Sometimes that information becomes public and you get a clear(ish) picture of a team that needed a reset. Most of the time we don’t have that. In this case, we don’t have that. Instead, it feels like we have a Hail Mary attempt at convincing fans everything is about to change for the better.
If you’ve been checking in with us here at The Daily Kickoff this season, you’ll probably have some idea of our stance on managers. Basically, academic research (and just kind of thinking about it for a few minutes) suggests very, very few managers are any kind of significant deviation from the mean. The quality of the roster matters far more than the person coaching it.
A select few coaches have a genuine impact for the better. Even still, most of that impact is less about tactics and passion than it is about a manager’s ability to recruit and draw in quality players. A few more managers have moments of conflict with their players or organization where the work environment becomes untenable. But, even then, it’s less about how “good” a manager is at coaching and more about finding someone else who will likely be equally ineffective, but is at least enjoyable to be around.
Robin Fraser is a decent case study for this. Did he suddenly become “bad” at coaching over the last two seasons? Remember, the Rapids finished first in the West in 2021 after earning 61 points. They’ve earned 62 points across the better part of two seasons since then. It seems doubtful Fraser started mailing it in after 2021. I can’t envision a world where he figured he reached the peak of his career by getting knocked out of the playoffs after one game and called it a day.
I can envision a world where a team starts to struggle after jettisoning key pieces from a 61-point team and fails to adequately replace them or build on the successful elements they had in place. In the offseason after their 61-point season, they had three open DP spots. It took until April, but they eventually used one of them to bring in Gyasi Zardes. He remained their only DP that year.
Instead of building, their biggest offseason move actually involved sending off starting midfielder Kellyn Acosta to LAFC. Acosta started 28 regular season games for the MLS Cup and Supporters’ Shield winners and even scored in MLS Cup. The Rapids struggled to find a true replacement, eventually sent Mark-Anthony Kaye to Toronto and saw 2021 centerpiece Jack Price start just 14 games due to injury issues. That 61-point team had its midfield evaporate, saw some luck in their underlying numbers head the other way and finished with 43 points on the year. Sounds about right, doesn’t it?
This year’s team continued to deal with injuries, got even more unlucky – American Soccer Analysis’ expected points model has them at around 32 points instead of 19, the second largest disparity in MLS – and has struggled to see roster risks like the Kevin Cabral trade turn into rewards. If any of that is on Fraser, it’s hard to see exactly how from the outside, which made club president Pádraig Smith’s letter to fans following Fraser’s departure interesting.
“It’s unacceptable for the type of club we want to be,” Smith wrote of recent performances. “But, more crucially, it’s unacceptable because this is a team that’s capable of much, much more than that.
“We’ve seen what the potential of this team can be when we play to our strengths and follow the principles that saw us top the Western Conference not that long ago. Finishing with a club-record points total in 2021 wasn’t by luck; it was the result of a systematic approach that built on progress made year over year from 2018 to 2021.
“We’ve since deviated from that path, however, and that’s ultimately what this change is about: getting back on track.”
To be honest, the statement brings up a lot of questions. Mainly, what in Smith’s eyes did Fraser start to do all that differently year over year? Maybe the answer is obvious. But from a 20,000-foot view, the roster lost key pieces, the key pieces that were left picked up injuries, the roster as a whole didn’t improve, and the team started missing chances that, on a different timeline, have them right on the edge of the playoff line or better in the West.
So, what now? And how does the next person in charge align with what the Rapids supposedly want in the way that Fraser didn’t? Maybe those answers are clear. For now though, all that’s left are questions.