Jason Maxwell: Rapids Soccernomics Explained

This article was written by Jason Maxwell. Jason is a longtime Rapids fan and blogger. He wrote for Burgundy Wave a few times back when we were with SB Nation. Check out his blog View From The Couch, which has been going strong since 2008. Jason’s views do not necessarily reflect that of Burgundy Wave.

OPINION – Listening to Pádraig Smith since he and Wayne Brandt were put in charge of the Colorado Rapids I’ve been reminded of the book Soccernomics, particularly over the last couple of years as we’ve seen the decisions made in roster building and eventually the coaching change. 

For readers who are unfamiliar with the book Soccernomics it was published in 2009, written by Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski. Both authors are experts in finance of sports and this book is largely an economic look at the game of soccer, both at the club and national team level.

While I found the book interesting I’m not sure how well it’s held up. For example the subtitle to the book is “Why England loses, why Germany and Brazil win, and why the U.S., Japan, Australia-and even Iraq-are destined to become the kings of the world’s most popular sport.” Needless to say in the 14+ years since the book was published we haven’t seen much movement in those teams other than arguably Japan. 

The authors have also had some things to say and predict about MLS’s economic model that have been shown to not only not become true but in some cases the complete opposite has happened. However the point of this post isn’t to debate the quality of the book. It is to show how some of the rules they laid out in it seem to be what’s guiding the Rapids.

Specifically Chapter 3 is about how to avoid silly mistakes in the transfer market starting with the analysis of the amount spent in the market versus the results those teams got out of that spending and comes to two conclusions:

“In fact, the amount that almost any [European] club spends on transfer fees bears little relation to where it finishes in the league.”

“In short, the more you pay your players in wages, the higher you will finish; but what you pay for them in transfer fees doesn’t seem to make much difference.”

Essentially spending a lot to acquire players doesn’t help, but paying the right players what they’re worth does.

The chapter then focuses primarily on the 2000’s era Olympqiue Lyon side in France’s Ligue 1, who won the league seven times in a row between 2002 and 2008 when the book went to print.(Lyon wouldn’t win the league again after that, but they finished in the top five for the next 11 years). The club did this without spending an exorbitant amount in the transfer market. Kuper & Szymanski had a chance to interview Club President Jean-Michel Aulas and Technical Director Bernard Lacombe about their model.

The first thing about their model that reminded me of how the Rapids have been run under Smith is how they use the team manager. He is considered just a ‘middle manager’ whose job it is to get the best results on game day with the pieces he’s given. The club sets the style of play and signs the players. It’s the manager’s job to produce wins. Lyon won their seven titles under four different managers in that period, the stability came from Lacombe as TD. 

This is very similar to how the Rapids Technical Director (Pádraig Smith until last year, now Fran Taylor) makes the decisions on what players to sign. We’ve seen that ‘style of play’ idea in the Rapids Way and, most recently, in Smith’s letter to season ticket holders when Robin Fraser was fired in September:

“We’ve since deviated from that path however, and that’s ultimately what this change is about; getting back on track.Back to being a team that plays to its strength. Back to being a team that emphasizes player development. Back to being a team that approaches each game with urgency, intensity, and boldness, with a resolute spirit and a burning desire to win.”

Colorado seems to want to be able to plug in a manager, give him the players and the style expectations, and tell him to go get wins in the same way Lyon did in the 2000’s.

Going back to the transfer market, here are Lyon’s “rules” and how they compare to the Rapids moves over the last six or so years.

Rule #1: Use the wisdom of crowds.

No one person is making the decision on a transfer for Lyon. The President, Technical Director, Head Coach, and others all discuss each move. We see some of that when you realize Smith, Taylor, data analysts, and the manager are all involved in discussion about players. In the end though the Rapids do feel like they haven’t fully adopted this rule.

Rule #2: The best time to buy a player is when he is in his early 20s.

Teenagers, even highly-touted ones, don’t have a high enough hit rate to be worth buying, and waiting until a player is in their prime of their mid/late-20’s makes them too expensive. You don’t want to pay for “names,” you want to buy up and coming players who aren’t at the top of their game yet. Colorado does this in spades. Max Alves, Kévin Cabral, Omir Fernandez, Braian Galván, Calvin Harris, Aboubacar Keita, Jonathan Lewis, and Rafael Navarro are just some of the examples on the current roster. Not to mention guys who have been here and left like Auston Trusty or Kellyn Acosta.

Rule #3: Try not to buy center forwards.

Center forward is the most overvalued position on the transfer market, while goalkeeper is the most undervalued position. What have we seen the Rapids do? Spend almost nothing on signing center forwards (Cabral being a notable exception, but he’s even more of a winger) while we’re once again bringing in a new goalkeeper in Zack Steffen. This after getting William Yarbrough and Marko Ilić, both of whom were loans and eventually bought. And going back before Smith, signing Tim Howard.

Rule #4: Help your foreign signings relocate.

Lyon found that most clubs don’t do much when bringing in a foreign signing, leaving it to their agent to help them with the challenges of moving to a new country. By being supportive of them they made the transition faster which led to the player performing sooner. I don’t know what the Rapids, and MLS, really do on this front, but Smith does seem aware that the transition can take a while. He’s commented multiple times that it can take six months to a year for a new international signing to really find their feet in this league.

Rule #5: Sell any player if some club offers more than he’s worth.

There’s an interesting quote from Aulas in this section:

“Buying and selling players is not an activity for improving soccer performance. It’s a trading activity in which we produce gross margin. If an offer for a player is greatly superior to his market value, you must not keep him.”

When you look at some of the moves that Smith made after the 2021 season, like trading Kellyn Acosta before the 2022 season started and Marc-Anthony Kaye in the midseason window, it sure seems like we’re operating under this principle. If we get an offer for a player that’s more than we value them we seem to sell them, regardless of the impact on the results.

Rule #6: Replace your best players even before you sell them.

Lyon was constantly bringing in new young players expected to take over starting spots when the current starter moved on. Pádraig Smith has repeated this exact philosophy multiple times. Of course MLS’s roster rules make it difficult to actually have the players on the roster, but we’ve seen the Rapids attempt to be prepared ahead of time, like bringing in Lucas Esteves when they sold Sam Vines and Keita when they sold Trusty. The fact that they haven’t been successful with those replacements is another issue.

As you can see, it feels like Pádraig Smith is trying to run the Rapids like Aulas and Lacombe run Lyon. However there are a few notable differences in the two scenarios. First of all Bernard Lacombe was a successful striker for Lyon and France, and then managed Lyon for four years, including winning the Intertoto Cup, before taking over as Technical Director. Smith and Taylor have never played or managed professionally.

Also Lyon had this success in the 2000’s, before the wave of money that entered the sport in the last 10-15 years happened. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Qatari investment in PSG happened in 2011. Lyon has not won the league since then. It’s one thing to be smarter in the market than a team that’s richer but in the same zip code as you, it’s another to be smarter than teams that are outspending you by 2, 3, 4 times or more. PSG has won nine of 12 titles since they got the Qatari investment and seem to be on their way to a 10th title this season.

Conclusion: Can Rapids Soccernomics work?

Finally, there is no salary cap, roster limits, international slots, or DPs in Ligue 1. MLS has all of these restrictions along with big spenders like Miami, LAFC, and Atlanta. What worked in 2000’s Ligue 1 won’t translate to MLS. At some point you need to ‘keep up with the Joneses’ by actually spending money on notable players. Otherwise you get left behind like Colorado is experiencing right now. So far, Rapids Soccernomics can clearly only go so far given the financial limitations KSE puts on them.

Does the signing of Steffen and (reportedly) Mihailovic indicate their strategy is changing?  We’ll see.

Photo Credit: John Babiak

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