Colorado Rapids Best Passer Is Rafael Navarro to Himself. Seriously.

EDITORIAL – So the Rapids attack. The pressing. The build up play. Outside of set pieces, it’s a work in progress. The forwards can get into good areas, but 11 games into the season, execution in the final third could be improved. What’s working and what’s not? Who is the Colorado Rapids best passer and what does that mean?

Rafael Navarro has just two goal from the run of play. Take out the LAFC game, and No. 10 Djordje Mihailović has three assists in 802 minutes. Two of those are secondary assists. The other was from a corner. Needless to say, Navarro could be scoring more from possession. Mihailović isn’t providing service from the run of play that are leading directly to goals.

BW Patron Ben from American Soccer Analysis was able to look some numbers up for us. Below is a table of the top 15 shooter and passer combinations based on the cumulative Expected Goals (xG) created by the passer setting up the shooter.

These numbers are for the first 10 league games this season. I’ve omitted Sunday’s NYCFC game. Chris Armas changed the tactics a bit and went with a 4-4-2. The field was also small. In that, the last game was an outlier. I am trying to evaluate the Rapids attack based on their default 4-2-3-1 and the approach that comes with it. Hence, looking at the data for the first 10 games.

So, what did we learn? Firstly, the top two are Navarro and Kévin Cabral unassisted. Navarro’s best setup man is him creating chances on his own. More bluntly, the best attacking tandem on the Rapids by total xG is Navarro to himself. Navarro’s 1.18 xG does not include his three penalties, to be clear.

Mihailović and Cole Bassett also make the list as unassisted. This suggests that these four players are trying to create their own shots. They just haven’t converted. Navarro and Cabral have no goals on their combined 2.16 unassisted xG. These shots could be a lot of low quality opportunities tried out of lack of options. This is further evidence the linkup play can still improve.

Now, who’s doing a good job creating for others? The fullbacks? The fullbacks!

Keegan Rosenberry makes this top 15 list three times. Sam Vines is there twice. Their combined xG, all to attacking players, is 1.7. Armas has been more conservative with his outside backs. As Rapids fans have discussed, Sam Vines has not been the Vines Back that got him national team and European opportunities in 2021. Captain Keegan and Vines have been efficient with fewer times they have gone forward. Maybe this is a signal Armas should give them more opportunities to attack. Maybe it signals they should pass to someone besides Darren Yapi when they do.

At #7 is KSB to Mihailović. That shot is entirely the winning goal against LAFC. One assist by a bench rookie was so high quality that it overcame attacking combinations that have played 10 games together. Well done KSB, but others need to do better.

Finally and most significantly, Mihailović only makes this list once. He’s created a third of an expected goal for Cabral. He’s said when Navarro isn’t scoring, he feels like he’s not doing his job. Mihailović needs to play better. He needs to do a better job creating chances for himself and others.

The team as a collective needs to convert these chances. Armas needs to make improvements to the system so they can create more chances from the run of play. They do that, Navarro won’t have to rely on himself to score goals. The team will be better for it.

Photo Credit: John Babiak

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