Lamine Diack and Rafael Navarro Loan Options: Updates on What’s Likely to Happen

COMMERCE CITY – We are in the final month of the Rafael Navarro loan stint with Colorado Rapids. There’s just two months left on Lamine Diack’s loan as well. Colorado has options to buy on both players. Navarro’s been a fantastic striker but comes with some big financial implications. Diack hasn’t made the bench in six games. That move is looking like a bust. With that, what’s going on what what’s likely to happen?

Rafael Navarro loan: Fitting in, scoring, but there’s complications

Let’s start with Navarro. His loan expires June 30. As reported by several outlets including Burgundy Wave, there was a $500,000 loan fee and there is a purchase option for $4.5 million. Colorado’s final game of the month is June 29 at LAFC. That will be the 21st game of the regular season.

Two thirds of a season is a good sample size. I’ve been saying for months that 10 goals at that point would warrant retaining Navarro. Navarro has 9 goals and 3 assists. He was 4 for 4 on penalties a week ago, but then missed PKs against Minnesota and Houston.

“I’ve been very pleased from both players from a mentality perspective,” President Pádraig Smith told Burgundy Wave. “We never doubted that Rafa could score goals. It is a challenge for anybody coming into a club that isn’t doing well. We weren’t creating chances (last year). This year, Rafa, feels more at home. He’s started scoring at a much better clip. It’s now our job to do the work and come to a determination from a valuation standpoint.”

He’s fit in with the team tactically. Chris Armas loves the way he presses and his hold up play. He creates chances for himself. He’s getting along with his teammates. Cole Bassett speaks to him in Spanish. One staffer jokes with Burgundy Wave staff that they only see Navarro and Omir Fernandez next to each other. They’re never not in the same room together.

Navarro had scored in five straight games prior to this past week, which was rough for everyone. He should get a 10th goal in those next four matches. At time of publishing, he’s on pace for 18 goals, 10 non-penalty goals in league play. For $4.5 million and a TAM-able DP striker, that’d be great.

A Brazilian source has told Burgundy Wave an early deal is unlikely. From precedent, we’ve seen Colorado try to negotiate down transfer fees when there is an option to buy. It’s in Palmieras’ interest to wait it out. Every game Navarro scores, his value goes up. They’re probably hoping he goes on another tear after the international break and Colorado reaches a pressure point.

(Maybe Navarro missed those two penalties and Armas benched him on Saturday on purpose, paying 4D Chess to lower his value. This is sarcasm.)

“I’m very happy here and to be scoring the goals. Helping the team, I’m very happy. As for the loan, it’s something or my agent and the clubs to talk about,” Navarro said recently through a translator. He’s ready to compartmentalize his future and help the team bounce back in June.

The Rapids clearly value him. Tom Bogert of The Athletic has reported the club is trying to turn him into a max-TAM player. That would cap his salary at $1,683,750. That would be a pay raise from his salary per the MLSPA last month. The transfer fee is a factor in determining DP status. If they can pull it off, that would be some fantastic Rapids Math.

Navarro just turned 24-years-old. He’s about to enter his prime age wise. Palmeiras’ club model relies on playing young wonder kids in the attack and selling them for eight figures to Europe. That makes Navarro a filler piece. He’s more useful and more valuable to Colorado. Can the Brazilian parent club find someone to pay more for him this summer?

Expect this to go down to the wire. Have to think the Rapids FO will do anything to pay less than that $4.5 million. I would be surprised if Navarro ends up in transfer purgatory like Marko Ilić did last year. The first week of July the Rapids have home games to Sporting KC and St. Louis City.

I would be shocked if Navarro’s not a permanent Rapids player in the end. The club spending more for him than the reported $3 million or so for Djordje Mihailović would be another indication that ownership is more invested than in previous years.

TLDR: Don’t expect Lamine Diack to be made permanent

It’s been tough for the 23-year-old Diack. He joined preseason late. He appeared ready to go in late March. He made four late bench appearances in April, but hasn’t played since May 5 against NYCFC. He’s played 16 minutes total.

“Unfortunately for Diack, the paperwork wasn’t done in time for preseason. That led to him being behind the 8-ball,” said Smith. “Diack’s performances in training contribute to Oli continuing to do better because he (Larraz) continues to do better. Diack trains well, he’s just up against some stiff competition.”

Diack looked good in training in March and April. Larraz was playing well at that time. Diack was used as a substitute holding midfielder. He was a good sweeper at Inter Miami and against Dallas.

The club has an internal method for rating players in every training. Burgundy Wave has reason to believe Diack’s training has slipped significantly in the last month. One source said he doesn’t appear to be happy with how things have gone. Larraz has struggled but Diack’s just not rated right now. All while the club concedes 16 goals in the six games he’s been out of the lineup.

Diack’s loan expires at the end of July after nine more MLS games. The longer he goes without any minutes, the more improbable it is he stays. It’d take a miracle or a plethora of injuries to that position at this point.

We still don’t have confirmation on what the purchase option is. Sources tell Burgundy Wave that the 2.7 million that was reported in France is what FC Nantes paid to acquire him from Turkish club MKE Ankaragücü. Nantes narrowly avoided relegation in France. They’re not in a position to sell players at a loss this summer, especially young players. Speculating, it’s hard to see the option to buy price being less than what Nantes paid for him.

Diack’s time at the club is a strange one. Somebody messed up but it’s not clear who. Did the scouting team overhype him? Did the club rush a deal without doing all their homework? Is the coaching staff not evaluating him properly? Is this all on the player? Maybe this is all David Gauss Theorem and if he had 12 months in MLS he’d turn out fine just like Navarro.

It’s hard to see how a player of his perceived stature falls so far within the club purely because he’s late for preseason and Oliver Larraz plays three good games.

In any case, don’t expect him back. The Rapids should use that salary and international slot on another holding midfielder or a winger this summer.

Photo Credit: John Babiak

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