Austin FC Preview With Phil West From Verde All Day

COMMERCE CITY – And we’re back from the International break. Tomorrow Colorado Rapids host Diego Rubio and Austin FC. Burgundy Wave collaborated with Phil West from Verde All Day. Find his work here. We asked five questions to get Rapids fans ready for the match.

We have to start with the former Rapids. Gyasi Zardes is riding the bench. Rapids talisman Diego Rubio is a starter and has three goals, albeit slightly out of position. How are they doing and feeling about Saturday? Rubio’s out for revenge, yeah? 

So you know how Zardes seemed like was maybe starting to, uh, age out of a regular starting role when he was with Colorado? He’s fully there now. He’s definitely capable of getting on the field and doing some positive things in the last 20 to 30 minutes of a match. He has been called on for an occasional start, but with Emi Rigoni now gone after a wild saga with the cushiest contract ever given a Designated Player, Zardes currently holds Austin’s most club-unfriendly contract, pulling in $800,000 to do what he’s doing. Nice guy, but wildly overpaid for what he’s actually going to do, and guaranteed through 2025. 

As for Rubio … we’ve got to say thank you. Everyone in Austin loves Rubio. Your description of him (when I first asked you about him right after the announcement), starting with calling him a “salty MFer,” has totally borne out. He scores, he sets up other players, he indulges in ‘housery that actually gives Verde a bit of an edge … he’s wonderful. I look forward to him using the occasion on Saturday for motivation.

Colorado and Austin both lost their last two games before the international break. What went wrong for Verde and how do they bounce back?

So, a few things are wrong with Verde. First and foremost, they’ve had injuries. Not to the level of 2023, when every center back had an adductor injury — that’s an exaggeration, but not by much — but enough to where it’s affected squad depth. Sebastian Driussi missed the first four games of the season and has missed the most recent 1 1/3. When Druissi plays at least an hour, Austin gets 1.82 PPG. When he doesn’t, it’s 0.5 PPG. Rapids fans, you may have lucked into a home match in which Austin’s talisman gets limited minutes at best. Josh Wolff has been typically cryptic about the injury, but we do know it’s a groin. Despite some happy pictures of him at training, based on what we do know, it’s probably a few weeks from being healed. Even if he’s better than we think he is, I’ll be surprised if he gets on the field at all on Saturday. 

Also, Copa America’s here! That means two starters, Julio Cascante and Dani Pereira, are with their national teams, though both teams will have a match at Q2 Stadium during the tournament, which is a happy coincidence. Two excellent players, winger Osman Bukari and fullback Mikkel Desler, are signed and on their way to Austin, but they can’t play until the summer window opens July 18.

They’ll be a good degree better after Leagues Cup, assuming Driussi heals along with the few other players out right now, barring future injuries, but they’ve just started a rough patch, which I think will last a few games. (You saw what happened their last time out against RSL.) Colorado’s actually their best chance at a result in their next three matches. 

I have to be honest, I’m surprised Josh Wolff still has this job. What’s he doing well? How is this team different from the last time they played Colorado? 

You’re not alone in that assessment. I had a whole sideline about a month ago with an invested Friend of the Site, coming up with the Thomas Rongen Line as a test of whether a coach is getting enough results to make MLS playoffs consistently. I chose that for Rongen’s career MLS record of 1.32 PPG; Wolff’s currently at 1.25 PPG per Transfermarkt.

This was also the week where we looked at American Soccer Analysis’s assessment of Austin as “overperforming and bad,” which is what 2024 Austin looks like on the surface. Halfway through the season, using the xPoints metric from that deep dive, Austin’s at under one excepted point per match, yet the team’s actually at 1.35 PPG and on target for about 45 points, which is where I think they’ll be after beating the Rapids at home on Decision Day. 

I think Wolff’s gotten more pragmatic this season, which I believe has a lot to do with newish Sporting Director Rodolfo Borrell (who arrived last July 1) helping him realize he can’t do pure positional play with the roster that Claudio Reyna assembled. While Borrell’s working to remake the roster — and he jettisoned some underperforming players last fall and found some Surprising Finds at Five Below players to fill in — Wolff’s being more realistic about what the team can do.

They don’t have as much purposeless possession at this stage of the season. They play more direct at times and look for opportunities to counter. They’ve put a lot more emphasis on defending after letting in 55 goals last year. Teams do get a lot of shots off against them, explaining the high xGA, but many of them are forced into low-percentage shots by able defending, and then Brad Stuver takes care of a lot of the rest. (Unless you’re RSL.) 

But still, it’s a work in progress, even if you factor 2022 in. Verde’s never had a striker score 10 goals in a season. Stuver’s the only Verde player in All-Star contention (and he does deserve it). I contend that this team would be swapping out Driussi with a low-end DP 9 and 10. Driussi is a second striker needing a wide playmaker like Diego Fagundez was in 2022, and even then is a luxury for a team that can only really progress the ball if Driussi’s locked in and Pereira’s behind him. 

When you remember that Wolff’s a Gregg Berhalter disciple, you understand the frustrations with him better. Wolff gets accused of some of the blameless smugness that people also pin on Berhalter. Their 4-3-3 formations using dual 8s rather than a traditional 10 similarly bog down against good teams. The highs can be pleasingly high, but the lows can be maddening and bleak. But, like Berhalter, Wolff still has his job. The decision-makers overseeing their futures haven’t assembled compelling reasons to part ways with them (or, at least, suitable and gettable successors). 

Got a prediction for us? 

On paper, looks like a 2-1 Rapids win, but I think a rested Verde who can manage road results will eke out a 1-1 draw.

Photo Credit: John Babiak

Thank you for reading Burgundy Wave. Support us via our Patreon starting at $5/month. We’re always looking for new talent. Let us know if you’re interested in covering Colorado Soccer.