Zack Steffen USMNT Injury: Post-Shot xG Criticism, “Just Another Step” Call-Up, and More

AUSTIN, Texas – For the first time since March 2022, Zack Steffen was called up to the United States Men’s National Team. It just so happened to be the first camp with new manager Mauricio Pochettino. After losing the starting goalkeeper job ahead of the 2022 World Cup, knee surgery, moving to Colorado Rapids, getting dunked on for his analytics, and a spectacular Leagues Cup, Zack was back in the national team picture. Like a man lost in the wilderness who journeyed his way back to civilization. Much to the ire of the load and skeptical corners of USMNT Twitter.

Anticlimactically, he got injured and left camp early.

His knee injury matters in evaluating his season:

Steffen joined Colorado from Manchester City in January on a free transfer. He was one of several USMNT hopefuls who moved from Europe to Commerce City in what proved to be one of the best off-seasons in club history. The excitement was there from the start of preseason with Steffen confirming he was ready to play.

“The knee’s good. I feel good. I feel fit. I feel strong. Just have to get used to the altitude. I’m excited and ready to go,” Steffen told Burgundy Wave back in preseason.

The now 29-year-old confirmed his knee was good to go. He had had surgery to repair meniscus damage in May of last year. He made his Rapids debut in the season opener at Portland Timbers, 292 days after his final start with Middlesborough before the surgery.

In all the discourse about Steffen’s Rapids form and the call-up for the Nats, people seem to be forgetting he’s in his first season back off that injury. A meniscus injury might not be seen as bad as an ACL tear, but it’s still major knee surgery. It was a 3-4 month recovery period, which extended past the transfer window in Europe, preventing a loan during Fall 2023. Not only was he coming off a major injury, he hadn’t played in 10 months.

A field player in that situation would be given the benefit of the doubt upon their initial return. The general consensus is players do not progress back to their pre-injury form until the season/year after they make their full recovery. So August 2024 at the earliest but potentially as late as the start of the 2025 MLS season. Steffen was owning Liga MX teams in penalties on August 2024 by the way.

“As far as Zack Steffen goes, midseason he took a lot of heat. There’s a lot of critics out there who are very quiet now. To see that he gets some recognition, possibly a national team call-up soon I’m sure. On a stage with a lot of eyes on it, he can show how good he is. His work ethic. His leadership. He’s a winner. How important this is to a team, you can’t put into words. Happy for Zack,” Armas said of his goalkeeper and alternate captain after Leagues Cup.

Steffen has just recently gotten back to being himself health wise. On a new team, with a first year head coach, and a bunch of new players. Context matters.

Zack’s 2024: Slow start, Leagues Cup, and the call-up

It was a slow start to the season for the club. They had a tough schedule in the first seven games, but managed nine points from that including a dramatic 3-2 win vs LAFC.

The offense got clicking after that with Djordje Mihailović and Rafael Navarro going on a good run. The team was gassed in late June but went on a great run in July leading up to Leagues Cup. They became the first MLS team to beat four Mexican teams in a row on the way to finishing 3rd and qualifying for Conca’ Champions. They won three PK shootouts across six games, with Steffen leading the way in all three.

Since returning to MLS play, their form has dipped. They lost three in a row for the first time all year. There’s some injuries. Despite conceding a bunch of goals in these games, Steffen has passed the eye test. He’s stood on his head to keep things close like at Minnesota. There haven’t been goals where he’s at fault. All this happened amid the team selling their most important center back Moïse Bombito.

The team hasn’t been getting clean sheets at any point. They have just six all year across all competitions. Only two are against teams that will be in the playoffs. They are 4th in the Western Conference for goals conceded with 57. They score a lot, they conceded a lot. Only four teams in MLS have conceded fewer than 40 this year, so nobody’s keeping a lot of clean sheets. Judging Steffen on clean sheets is oversimplified.

Overlaying his progress working with goalkeeper coach Chris Sharpe with the team form and taking into account his injury recovery, it’s clear to see an upward trajectory in his play as the season has progressed. Sharpe has worked with him on the mental side of the game. Confidence, focusing on what one can control, and blocking out the noise (USMNT Twitter and all) has been important for Steffen.

“When you hear stuff that’s not nice or not so good, of course, you’re not going to feel good about it. But I try not to look into those things and just focus on what I can control and that’s playing to the best of my ability. I just continue to work hard and focus on those things and at the end of the day, that always overpowers my mistakes and all that noise,” Steffen told Braidon Nourse of The Denver Post back in the summer when things started to get better.

He’s playing regularly. He’s playing well. He’s been getting better as time goes along. He is a part of why his team has been successful this year.

“Tim Howard had something no one else I’ve seen had. Zack has it too. The nostalgia between those two is interesting. I’m working with what I think is our best goalkeeper right now. You tell me who’s playing better than Zack Steffen right now? I’ll argue with you. Who’s going to be playing next World Cup?” Sharpe said.

Patrick Schulte is the only other goalkeeper from this USMNT roster who can say that. Steffen was the guy called up mostly for recent form. That’s fair. Which brings us to the biggest criticism that needs to be investigated.

About his Post-Shot xG:

As Matt Doyle and others have pointed out repeatedly, the one glaring issue with Steffen has been his Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Against is off the charts bad. PSxG-GA is the best metric we have for directly measuring a goalkeeper’s shortstopping ability.

Going into Decision Day, it’s -11.1 cumulative for league play this year per FBRef. Meaning an average MLS goalkeeper would have conceded ~11 fewer goals this season. That puts him in the 5th percentile. At one point this season, he was the worst goalkeeper for this metric in its history in MLS. It also has been relatively stable throughout the year. He wasn’t shelled in those first 10 games and is now playing catchup. The narrative around this season makes this seem better, but only slightly.

It is worth pointing out, these do not include Leagues Cup where qualitatively, his numbers would be far better even without the penalties included. He does also play for one of the most open teams in the league. Colorado create lots of chances, they give up chances. They score and concede a lot. So put any other goalkeeper in Steffen’s place, and their numbers would be inflated to their detriment.

Charlotte FC’s Kristijan Kahlina (who could win Goalkeeper of the Year) has the best PSxG-GA by a wide margin at +10.0. Charlotte have the fewest goal scored and conceded among playoff teams. Are his numbers slightly inflated because he plays for a good defensive team that gives up lower quality chances?

For reference, the top three Americans in MLS for this stat are Brad Stuver (Austin), Matt Freese (NYCFC), and Steve Clark (Houston). Stuver has been a great shot stopper for years in Austin. Freese is a contender for GOTY. In what world is Steve Clark getting called up for January camp? Columbus Crew’s Patrick Schulte made his first national team call-up. His PSxG-GA is +3.1 (+0.12 per 90), good for 67th percentile in MLS.

This stat is the best we’ve got. That doesn’t mean it’s perfect. Steffen’s numbers don’t lie, but they’re not telling the full story. Are you watching the games or just looking at the stats?

Looking at the other underlying metrics, his possession numbers have been very good. That was his strength going back to his time at Columbus Crew. It’s a differential for him relative to Matt Turner and Ethan Horvath. His other defensive actions are off the charts good. Colorado is aggressive offensively. With Bombito gone, they’re lacking recovery speed in defending counter attacks. Steffen has put on a sweeper keeper clinic the last 15 games. This could be a good fit stylistically for Poch.

What’s next:

Firstly, the injury is not believed to be long term. While Steffen will not play on Decision Day, he is expected back for the playoffs. It’s reportedly a minor injury according to Ryan Tolmich from Goal.com. This injury is likely what kept him off the bench for that game against Panama. If it was something serious, there’d have been word out of Rapids camp by now. In any case, the US has two friendlies in mid-November. Then probably nothing till January.

We’ll see if the Rapids are still in the playoffs at that point. That will be a factor in any playoff team’s goalkeepers getting called up by Poch. If Steffen finishes the season strong, he should certainly be in consideration for January camp.

“Hopefully it’s a start of something great. It’s just another step. Excited to get back with the guys,” Steffen told BW.

Long term, he’s had a bounce-back year in 2024. Another year removed from the injury, he should be better. So he’ll make further progress in 2025, theoretically. Poch has stated club form and playing regularly will matter.

If he’s playing well on a feisty Rapids team that’s exceeding expectations on a budget, he should be in the conversation for the national team. If Turner is starting regularly in the Premier League, is Steffen starting over him? Probably not. But if he and his club continue this trajectory, he should be in the conversation come the Gold Cup next summer. Post-Shot Expected Goals and MLS hating eurosnob USMNT Twitter trolls be damned.

Photo Credit: Mark Shaiken

Thank you for reading Burgundy Wave. Support us via our Patreon starting at $5/month. We’re always looking for new talent. Let us know if you’re interested in covering Colorado Soccer.