First Away Day in San Diego: Colorado Rapids San Diego Preview

SAN DIEGO, Calif. — The Colorado Rapids will hit the road and make their way to their first-ever away trip to Snapdragon Stadium. The Rapids will look to bounce back after a rough stretch of fixtures, most recently losing at home to San Jose 2-0, and remaining winless in their last four. San Diego FC, on the other hand, has been able to turn around their losing streak, as they have won the last two games by an aggregate of 7-1. It’s another tale of revenge for a California team against Colorado, with San Jose making up for their earlier loss to the Rapids with a win. San Diego will look to do the same. Let’s take a look at the matchup.

When: Wednesday, May 13 @ 8:30 p.m. MST

Where: Snapdragon Stadium

TV/Streaming: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

Frustrating Day against San Jose:

A shutout loss at home is never a good feeling, and the second is even worse. The Rapids fell to San Jose at home 2-0 on Saturday in a frustrating affair that left a lot more questions than answers when it comes to what team the Rapids are. Colorado was held to under one expected goal for the first time since Vancouver, and the first time with the 4-2-2-2 formation. They also did not find the back of the net for the fifth time in all competitions this season. This loss was a real downer as the recent form starts to dip for Colorado, with this loss marking the fourth straight game without a win.

From the start, it looked like an uphill climb for the Rapids. San Jose were the team knocking on the door more often in the first 45. San Jose could not finish their chances, and the Rapids looked to be going into halftime scoreless. But as has become tradition for the Rapids recently, San Jose pounced on a sloppy giveaway in the Rapids’ third to make it 1-0 with just a minute left in first-half stoppage time. Their ninth goal given up within five minutes of the first half whistle, the Rapids continued to put themselves in a hole moments before halftime.

It went from bad to worse for the Rapids as Rafa Navarro came off with a knock early in the second half, and a Chicho Arango chip midway through the second half made it 2-0 to the visitors. This is how it ended, as San Jose was able to see out this result with not a lot of pushback from the Rapids attack. The performance was out of character for this Rapids side, who were maybe just shell-shocked about conceding another goal right before the halftime whistle.

Lineup Prediction:

Steffen / Cannon, Maxsø, Awaziem, Travis / C. Bassett, Atencio, Larraz, Ronan / Yapi, Mihailović (c)

The Rapids will be without Brazilian Designated Player Rafa Navarro for the first time this season, after his knock in the San Jose match. This will leave a gap in the attack that has some question marks on how to fill it. There is no out-and-out striker on the bench to replace Rafa if the team were going to stick with the two-striker system. If Armas opts for the 4-2-3-1 of the past, Darren Yapi will be the obvious choice for the one striker. But with two strikers, the choice gets interesting.

When Rafa was subbed off against San Jose, Djordje Mihailović was the first to fill in up top. I expect to see a similar look to start in San Diego, but there are plenty of options to choose from if you are Chris Armas. If the Rapids are going to look to sit back and counter, a winger like Kévin Cabral or Ted Ku-DiPietro could be a fast option to add some verticality to the front line. This will give the team a different danger in the attack than what we would have seen with Navarro, and could be exactly what the doctor ordered to jumpstart this Rapids attack.

While the “Who starts alongside Yapi debate?” is obsolete if the Rapids go with only one striker up top, I believe they will stick to their 4-2-2-2. It’s what worked against San Diego in Colorado and has been a catalyst for some of the best Rapids attacking displays of the season. However, a formation change might become a necessity with Rafa out with his ankle injury. For the rest of the lineup, I believe it will be a fairly standard lineup from Armas, but it will be interesting to see if Vines is ready to start, or if Rosenberry can make his first appearance since Vancouver.

Potential Weaknesses to the 4-2-2-2:

The 4-2-2-2 has become Chris Armas’ preferred formation for the last few games, with Armas starting in this formation against San Diego and not deviating from it since (other than about 15 minutes against D.C., where they went back to a 4-2-3-1). It has been mostly a success for Colorado, which started out beating San Diego at home 3-2 and boasting an expected goals tally of 3.41 xG. The Rapids needed a change after a 2-0 loss at Vancouver, where the Rapids only scraped up 0.41 xG on seven shots with zero on target, and the 4-2-2-2 was that change.

It has allowed Yapi to come in and be a second striker to Rafa, sacrificing a body in the midfield to help out Navarro up top. This fixed the issue of Rafa being left alone on an island throughout some matches, which in turn helps get the Brazilian involved. This looked to unlock the dormant Rapids attack that had shown up in games earlier in the year. But it also left some problems that have made it hard for Rapids defenders, as the Rapids have given up two goals in four of the five games that Armas has used the 4-2-2-2.

So why is the defense leaking goals? A big contributor is the sacrifice of that body in the middle to have two men up top. Most teams in soccer and MLS have a three-man midfield. With only two center midfielders for the Rapids, teams can usually have a 3v2 in the middle of the park. This allows the opposition to dictate the play in the midfield, and leads to some fast counterattacks with the high press that Armas wants his team to employ. This puts stress on that Rapids backline in those moments, and leads to some numerical disadvantages for the Rapids in their defensive half. However, this is a common occurrence with teams that use a high press, and however many you have in the midfield won’t do much in defending a counterattack.

A more pressing and recent concern from the 4-2-2-2 has come from their last two matches, two losses, both against a three-back system. A big advantage of a two-striker system is being able to have a striker on both centerbacks, creating an advantageous 2v2 in a dangerous area of the field. This advantage is different against a three-man backline, as there will still be another center back for cover. With the opposition wing-backs on the two wide players for the Rapids, there becomes an issue of numbers in the attack. This was shown against both D.C. and San Jose, as the attack had their two worst outings of the 4-2-2-2 era, with the Rapids having 0.71 expected goals in their last three halves against a three-back.

The 4-2-2-2 has done great for the Rapids’ attack in most games, but has some weaknesses and sacrifices that lead to some disadvantageous moments for the Burgundy Boys. However, these are not signs to abandon the system. It has its great moments, and being a catalyst for a Yapi revolution has been a great thing for the Rapids. The formation may just need some tweaking when things aren’t looking right during games.

San Diego’s Start to Life in MLS:

San Diego’s first year in MLS has been a successful one. 6-2-4 start has them with 20 points and in 4th place in the Western Conference. Despite their recent struggles against Charlotte and both Rocky Mountain Cup teams, Mikey Varas has his team flying. They have had some eye-opening wins, with the recent 5-0 drubbing on FC Dallas coming to mind, along with a 3-0 win against Seattle and a 3-2 win against LAFC.

They did not have such fortunes when they paid their first visit to Colorado in early April. The Rapids won the first matchup between the two sides at DICK’s Sporting Goods Park in a shootout, and started a little downslide from San Diego, losing their next two games as well. The Californian side has since recovered and is looking for revenge and their third straight win.

The win was the first match Chris Armas had used the 4-2-2-2, and the first start for Darren Yapi, who found the back of the net alongside Mihailović and Navarro in a 3-2 win for the Rapids. The game also saw some of the quality that San Diego possesses, as USMNT midfielder Luca de la Torre scored a beauty from outside the box to level the scores at the time. A late goal from Tomas Angel made the last few minutes exciting, but ultimately, San Diego would rue the chances they missed.

San Diego will look to do what San Jose did and get revenge for an earlier loss against the Rapids. Colorado was able to keep San Diego stars Hirving Lozano and Anders Dreyer off the scoresheet in the first matchup, but it will be a tall task for the team to do the same at San Diego.

Prediction: The Rapids continue to struggle to stop leaking goals, and it is too hard a task for the attack to match the output. San Diego wins 3-1.

Photo Credit: Mark Shaiken

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