Marvel Superhero Night at DICK’s- Rapids vs Houston Preview

Commerce City, CO— The Rapids are back after a much-needed break and find themselves in another critical Western Conference battle against the Houston Dynamo. Houston (10th place, 8-9-12, 33 points) is on the outside of the playoffs looking in, while Colorado (8th place, 10-6-13, 36 points) is on the right side of the playoff line, but is teetering close to missing out on the playoffs entirely. This is another must-win game for the Rapids, with Houston being the closest team to bouncing Colorado for the last few playoff spots. Coming down to the previous five matches of the season, it is make-or-break time for Colorado and Chris Armas. Let’s take a look at the matchup.

When: Saturday, September 13th @ 7:30 p.m. MST

Where: DICK’s Sporting Goods Park, Commerce City, CO

TV/Streaming: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV

More Points Dropped Against Another Bad Team:

Colorado’s performance in Kansas City was better than at LA Galaxy, but the result was the same. Sporting KC was able to do the double on the Rapids and sweep the season series despite the Rapids’ dominance in both games. Colorado followed up their July 4th loss with 4.17 expected goals with a 3.67 expected goal performance in a 4-2 loss. 

Both games featured a missed penalty, this time coming from Rafa Navarro, marking his third miss of the season. It was not a pretty match from the start, with Colorado giving up a 4th-minute goal to Dejan Joveljić. A missed penalty 15 minutes or so later gave déjà vu of the first matchup between the two. But the Rapids found themselves up 2-1 at halftime. A late second-half collapse gave SKC all three points, and the Rapids had more questions than answers.

The defense, which featured recent signee Rob Holding, with the center back being the one first starter that felt particularly disappointing. Other first-time starters, Paxten Aaronson and Rafa Santos, were a lot better. Paxten won a penalty and was a general nuisance to the SKC back line. Rafa Santos left the field with an injury before the collapse, with an assist. Paxten did not get on the scoresheet, but showed why the Rapids paid the big bucks to bring him to Colorado. 

Chris Armas trotted out a seventh different formation against Sporting. It was the turn of the 5-3-2 formation in KC, making its debut this season. It is a very interesting look for the Rapids. They continue to find formations without wingers to go with their winger-heavy roster. Despite the extra center back along the back line, Colorado did not look good on the defensive side of the ball. The Rapids also looked to revert to a Mihailović style. Give Aaronson the ball and see what the star can do. A lack of options in the attack may have contributed to this. However, with the team netting 3.67 expected goals, maybe it works for Colorado. Just not in this match. 

Lineup Prediction:

Steffen / Cannon, Maxsø (c), Holding, Cobb, Santos / C. Bassett, Larraz, Aaronson / Yapi, Navarro

There was concern for Zack Steffen midweek as he looked to be limited in training per Burgundy Wave reporting. Adam Beaudry being called back added to Steffen’s concern, but it looks like he is ready to go. It is only Josh Atencio and Kimani Stewart-Baynes who are out, both with their usual injuries. Colorado has missed Atencio in the center of the field. It would be nice to see him back sooner rather than later.

One thing to look out for is how Chris Armas lines up his starting eleven. It has been three center-backs more often than not for Colorado. I could see them returning to a similar look to the one they used in Kansas. I could also see Armas reverting to a 4-2-3-1 or 4-4-2 formation. The Rapids have fluidity in their formation. Can they find the one formation that they stick with for the rest of the season?

We may see the debut of Alexis Manyoma after the winger finally finished his visa process and is available for selection for the first time against Houston. Depending on the formation Chris Armas opts for, Manyoma could line up on the wing or alongside Rafa Navarro in a double striker look. With Manyoma just recently getting to play with his new teammates, it would not be surprising to see his minutes limited and him starting the match on the bench. 

Is the Lack of Identity from the Rapids a Concern?

As I mentioned before, Chris Armas put out a 5-3-2 formation against Sporting KC. This was the seventh formation that Armas has started a game with. We have seen all of the 4-3-3, 4-4-2, 4-2-4, 4-2-2-2, 4-2-3-1, 3-4-3, 5-3-2 this season, with varying success. Colorado has started to lean into the three-center back look late in the season, with little return from the formation. It made sense against Minnesota. Allowing the team to mirror what Minnesota tries to do. However, since then, the results have been disappointing. 

In the latter stage of Armas’ second season, there is a valid concern that the team hasn’t settled on a formation. Switching between formations like the 4-2-3-1 and the 4-4-2 would be fine. But seven different looks with two sporting three center backs opposed to the usual two has its concerns. While it allows the team to be flexible, it feels more like a good at everything, but a master of none, than a team that can look good in different looks. This late into the season, and this close to playoffs, the time to have the team adapt to a new formation and system is long gone. The roster turnover is another concern for Colorado. Trying to get all of the latest signings adjusted to a formation that even the regulars aren’t familiar with is asking for disaster.

What should Colorado lock in on for the remainder of the season? It may be time to go back to the basics. The 4-2-3-1 was more than a fine formation for Chris Armas. It looks to fit this roster like a glove despite the recent roster changes. It allows for the new signings and the big-money players to play in their preferred positions. Cole Bassett in a double pivot, Paxten at the ten, and a revamped winger room that will give Colorado the danger they so desperately needed out wide from the 2024 adaptation of this formation. For a team that has looked all out of sorts in the recent matches, the fix may just be going back to the basics. 

Houston on the Outside Looking In:

The only MLS side to get no points during Leagues Cup, it’s been a down year for Houston. After finishing 4th and 5th in the West over the last two years, Houston finds themselves outside of the playoff line. Every game for the Dynamo from here on out is a must-win, especially this matchup. With Houston just two points behind ninth-place San Jose and three points behind Colorado in eighth, there is still a chance for the Texas side. RSL and FC Dallas are close on their heels, just behind them. It’s going to be a fun end of the season in the West.

Colorado and Houston are shockingly similar, with both teams scoring 38 goals this season, and the Rapids only conceding one more than Houston at 48. This is evident in their only matchup of the season so far, which ended in a 2-2 draw in Houston. All the way back in April, it was a battle between these two sides. The Rapids came back from 1-0 down to have a 2-1 lead going into second-half stoppage time, before a baffling amount of extra time allowed Houston to score a last-gasp equalizer that got Steffen mad enough to see two yellows in a few seconds after the whistle. It may be a revenge game for the Rapids in Commerce City.

It was the other way around for Houston in their last match, with LA Galaxy scraping a last-second draw in the ninth minute of stoppage time. There are many similarities between these two sides, but the Rapids will hope to gain an edge over their playoff rivals in Commerce City. Would like to avoid a similar type of result in this match as the reverse fixture.

Prediction: Colorado breaks their losing streak and gets back on track after a very important home win. Rapids win it 3-1.

Photo Credit: Spencer Baldwin

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