The MLS Schedule Change Is Generally Good for the League, Bad for Colorado Rapids.

Editorial – So last week was a big week of MLS news. On Thursday, the Board of Governors (BOG) voted to approve a move to a fall-spring calendar starting in 2027. Read the details here. MLS and Apple also announced that MLS Season Pass will not be a separate subscription. Apple TV subscribers will have access to MLS content automatically effective in 2026.

What the Apple News Means:

The second makes MLS more accessible to more viewers. That’s good. Season Pass being its own subscription hasn’t worked if you ask MLS Twitter. It’s nice the league finally has all games under one umbrella. But it being a stand-alone subscription made it another step and another subscription that casual/potential fans might not take. Also $99 annually was too expensive. 

This comes after Apple finally released some viewership numbers. Albeit there was no secondary way to verify those. Fans and media still have doubts about this decision after 2022. There are reports Apple could pull the plug after 2027. That would be admitting it hasn’t worked. It felt like a move to get more money out of existing fans rather than grow the tent. Making Season Pass included for Apple TV subscribers is a step in the right direction. Will it matter in the long run given the other news this week? We’ll see.

I still wonder if not trying to work things out with ESPN+ was a mistake. 

The Bigger Move: Switch to European Calendar

Starting in 2027, MLS will move to a European schedule. The regular season will start in late July and end in April. MLS Cup will be held in May. For 2027-28, there will be a winter break from early December through February. Unclear whether that will change in future seasons. The MLSPA will have a say. Do we see the format played with like Leagues Cup and the playoffs?

The schedule will minimize the number of home games in northern markets from December to February. MLS will fully pause during international breaks. The league will also move from two conferences to five divisions. 

Next season will have existing format except for a break for the World Cup. Historically, MLS has paused for the group stage only. We could see a longer break given the U.S. and Canada are hosting with several MLS markets and stadiums hosting games. Will this lead to a bunch of fixture congestion before and after the World Cup? Maybe. We could just not play Leagues Cup, but I digress. 

In the spring of 2027, MLS will speed run a season with a 14 game regular season. That “season” or “year” will have a bigger asterisk on it than 2020 did. A team might win MLS Cup playing 17 games total, half an MLS “regular season.” That Cup will be less meaningful to everyone other than the winner. A proper MLS Apertura 2027. 

This Is Good for MLS Roster Building and the Global Market:

The biggest argument for this move is it aligns MLS’s transfer windows with most of the world. MLS having its secondary transfer window be the primary transfer window for Europe and South America has become more of a problem since the league has grown into the global transfer market. 

“You can’t be making your biggest roster move of the year with 10 games to go in your season,” an MLS executive once told me. 

The last two seasons, Colorado Rapids’ biggest moves have been so inconvenient. In August 2023, Moïse Bombito was sold to OGC Nice. The club chose to not sign a center back, but had they, that player would have been in Colorado and ready to go off of European pre-season with 7-9 games to go. This past year, Djordje Mihailović and Chido Awaziem left in the summer. Paxten Aaronson and Rob Holding replaced them but by the time they were in Colorado training and fit, there were 7 games left. 

Plenty of mid-season signings in MLS have had slow starts due to visa wait times as well. At least now, that will be at the beginning of the season and not during the playoff push. 

With all of that said, MLS will not realize the gains of this move unless owners/clubs make similarly ambitious moves. That has to include increasing spending. This change will help front offices with roster build. For MLS to be a “league of choice,” they need to schedule like it and spend like it.

This shift on its own will help a bit and hurt big in other ways. It will only be a net positive across the board if there are several other big moves that follow. MLS cannot delay like it has in the past.

This Is Bad for Colorado Rapids, Right? Probably. I Need More Information.

Enough outlets have covered the cons for the league on this. They generally align with what will hurt the Rapids generally on this. I’ll focus on what this means for the club specifically. The bad stuff will be magnified for the club given the state of the club and the market. 

Let’s start with the weather. Attendance in cold markets will be hurt by this. Colorado and other teams built outdoor stadiums, not closed dome stadiums. The BOG took away those glorious June and July nights where the sun is up till halftime and temperatures are in the 70s-80s through full time. There was a reported discussion about cold market teams getting compensated with revenue due to this change but it wasn’t part of the vote on Thursday. 

The weather issue can be mitigated a few ways. The proposal included a winter break but it’s not clear if it could vary. The initial December-February break would make the winter break as long as the summer break for non-playoff teams. That’s basically the Apertura-Clausura format. Joe Samelson and I have wanted that for years. It works for the rest of the Americas. If you’re going to do an Apertura and Clausura, then call it that. MLS is saying 2027-28 is the same season.

I need more details. What’s the sweat spot for skipping the coldest weather but without losing momentum due to having no home games for three months?? What happens if a game is canceled/postponed due to weather? Snow Clasico has been a once every few years phenomenon. It could become a regular thing, 6 7 times a season.

The snow games are fun lore, but attendance for them is bad. We have the data. When it’s cold, attendance drops. When there’s other pro sports going on, attendance drops. Midweek games or lots of fixture congestion, attendance drops.

The Rapids struggle getting more than 16,000 tickets distributed in the first third of the season. Attendance increases after that with warmer weather and the Nuggets and Avalanche playoff runs over. Peak Pids season is May-August. That’s gone now. To say nothing of the 4th of July game ending. 

Does the average Denver sports fan pay attention to the Rapids and Rockies outside those months? I wonder. I don’t see how this move makes it easier for the casual Rapids fan to attend more games. If anything, they’re more likely to attend fewer.

MLS Cup in sunny May is going to be way better than December. Is that worth every team losing a bunch of summer night home games? 

MLS is making a big bet in now competing directly with the NFL, NBA, and NHL season. I’m worried they’re bitting off more than they can chew. Unless more bold change is coming.

Other markets will be ok, but this has to be a net negative for the Rapids. It could be really really bad. Again, I’d like more info. Are most games on Saturday? MLS went easy on the midweek games last year. Is Apple sticking with the 7:30 local kickoff? From October to April, how many Saturday nights are the Avs and/or Nuggets playing? How many of those Saturdays does one of them have a home game? 

Are the Rapids really going to be forced to play 7:30 Saturday kickoffs October-March competing directly with Avs and Nuggets weekend home games? I have a bad feeling about this. 

“I love a 2:30 (kickoff). I wish we did more. I don’t understand why we do the night games. Especially when it’s early on in the season and it’s cold. And in the fall as well,” Zack Steffen said after an afternoon game against Charlotte.

Markets could do 3 pm kickoffs like in England at the start and end of the existing schedule. That could work. It could conflict with the ski crowd. I don’t have great answers. I hope MLS comes up with some before July 2027. 

Last Word: On Divisional Alignment

MLS will be moving to a single table with five divisions. Teams will play divisional opponents home and away. Teams will play non-divisional opponents once. Playoff format and number of playoff team hasn’t been clarified but at a minimum division winners will make the playoffs. 

I think this is better than the current two conference format. MLS teams go years without playing teams in other conferences. Making all the teams play each other more frequently is more fair competitively. This is better if you’re going to do a single table. It restores more credibility to the Supporters’ Shield which was lost when the schedule became unbalanced in the 2010s. 

Most of the mock ups I’ve seen of these have Colorado and RSL in the same division. Most commonly, they’re lumped in with the Cascadia teams. When fans have hypothesized about a four division format, mock ups split up Colorado and Salt Lake. Getting put in a division with the Cascadia teams (up and down other than Seattle) and San Jose could be an easier path to the playoffs.

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