Santa Clara, CA– The United States is in the knockouts of the World Cup. After topping their group of Australia, Paraguay, and Turkiye, it is Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Round of 32. After a dead-rubber loss for the United States against Turkiye, it is back to games that matter, and hopefully, the USMNT are back to being fully healthy for a push in the World Cup knockouts. The United States had the privilege of resting its starters in the last match of the group. Bosnia did not have that same privilege and faced a must-win game against Qatar, which they won to secure a third-place finish. Will the extra rest be a key part in this knockout game? Let’s take a look at the matchup.
When: Wednesday, July 1st @ 6:00 p.m. MST
Where: Levi’s Stadium
TV/Streaming: Telemundo, Fubo Sports, Tubi, FOX One, FOX 4K, FOX, Peacock ES, FOX Sports 4K, FOX Sports
Last-Minute Dead-Rubber Loss
The USMNT could not make it three-for-three in the group stage, as Turkiye scored a last-minute winner to take all three points. Unfortunately for Turkiye, they are still headed home after being eliminated before the match. Fortunately for the USA, they had already clinched first place in the group before the match, so we were able to see a lot of rotation, resting key players due to injuries or yellow cards. It was a game that meant absolutely nothing to either team. It was a win for the United States to avoid any injuries or suspension. The only negative to come from the game from a United States perspective was an injury to Auston Trusty that looked quite bad in real time, with the stretcher coming on. Trusty was able to continue for the rest of the game with said injury, but didn’t look too comfortable.
Speaking of Auston Trusty, the former Rapid scored the first goal of the game, his first goal for the United States, and his first at the World Cup. It was another quick start for the USMNT, with Trusty finding the net off a corner in the third minute of the match—a special moment for the ex-Rapid man.
Turkiye then scored the next two goals on some poor defensive play from the United States. The stars of Turkiye, Arda Guler and Kenan Yilmaz, both showed up for those goals and got one each. The winner for Turkiye took advantage of Auston Trusty’s injury and Mark McKenzie’s poor man-marking to sneak the late winner. The negatives of this game on the field seemed tied to the personnel rather than the system. Hopefully, the defense looks less shaky once the starters rotate back in. It is interesting to wonder how this game would have played out if it were the expected fight for first place. Either way, the USMNT is on to the round of 32, and Turkiye is on their way home.
Lineup Prediction:
Freese / Freeman, Ream (c), Richards / Dest, McKennie, Adams, A. Robinson / Pulisic, Tillman / Balogun
Mauricio Pochettino rotated the starting lineup against Turkiye and was rewarded with a team with few injuries to the starting eleven and no suspensions going into the round of 32. It feels like Poch has a starting eleven and system set from the start of this tournament, and it would make sense for him to continue on this path in the knockouts. In the games that mattered in the group stage, he played this exact lineup, only with Ricardo Pepi in for an injured Christian Pulisic against Australia. It would be surprising if Poch deviates from this against Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Most of this starting eleven wouldn’t have played a game since the game against Australia on June 19th. Pulisic got a few minutes to get back into the groove against Turkiye, Malik Tillman, Alex Freeman, and Sergino Dest got some time. Weston McKennie was the one outlier, as Christian Roldan’s injury forced Poch to keep a starter on in the midfield. Sharpness may be a concern for the United States after 12 days of rest for most starters. Fatigue should not be a concern, and should benefit the USMNT in this game.
Third-Place Bosnia Squeaks Into Knockouts
Bosnia and Herzegovina did not have the straightforward path to the knockouts that the United States had. They started the tournament with a much-needed draw against Canada, weathering the storm for most of the match and escaping with a point. Switzerland was less forgiving, beating the Bosnians 4-1. Going into the final matchday against Qatar, they needed a win to have a chance at the knockouts. Despite losing the expected-goals battle, Bosnia and Herzegovina scored three goals and beat Qatar in thrilling fashion.
This was good enough to get Bosnia the fifth-best third-place team in the tournament. They ended with the same points as Canada, but fell to third due to goal difference. The 64th-ranked team by FIFA had reached the World Cup knockouts. All the stats and analytics suggest this should be a good opportunity for the United States to advance to the round of 16 against either Belgium or Senegal. It will not be that simple. We have already seen some shocking results from this stage of the knockouts. Paraguay knocked out Germany. Each game, except for France vs Sweden, was a close affair. The USMNT would like to avoid penalties, but they might have the advantage on that front. This will be a tough game, with two teams that won’t want to go home early.
The last time these two teams met, it took a last-minute winner from former Rapid Cole Bassett for the USMNT to win 1-0. Bassett won’t be in Santa Clara to save the United States this time. That will fall on other shoulders.
Prediction: The United States continues the trend of close knockout games and wins a close one against Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-1.Â
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Eamon Shaw 
Matt Pollard 