Inglewood, Calif. – Friday afternoon saw Belgium meet Spain in a World Cup quarterfinal. The winner would meet tournament favorite France in the semifinal. Had the USMNT gotten a result on Monday in the Round of 16 against the Red Devils, it would have been them playing the Spanish. The match ended 2-1, with Spain capitalizing late on a mistake. This Belgium loss and really the performance show how far the USMNT has to go against the elite teams on the world’s stage.
Spain were the protagonists for most of this match. They pinned in a defensive Belgian side for the first half hour, scoring on a rebound in the 30th minute.
Belgium to their credit, have been resilient throughout the World Cup. They took care of business in the final group stage game to win Group G. They were dead in the water for 80 minutes against Senegal before two late goals to force extra time. A VAR penalty saw them through in the 120th. You know what happened against the United States.
In this game, they again found a response. Kevin De Bruyne slipped a through ball to Timothy Castagne who found Charles De Ketelaere for a header for his third goal of the knockouts.
It was evident how much better Spain was:
Regardless of them leveling it, the second half was dire. Spain had 74% of the ball. xG was 1.00 to 0.19 and about the same in the second half. KDB’s 84th minute goalkeeper chip from midfield might have been their best chance of the half.
Spain were the better team. Belgium’s game plan showed they thought that. There were a few key injuries of note. Youri Tielemans went down in warmups. Amadou Onana hurt his ACL against the USMNT. In the second half, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois had a left muscle (quad or hamstring). The coaching staff made the decision to sub him off.
Backup Senne Lammens came on. He gave up a rebound on a hard shot from Pau Cubarsà in the 88th. Substitute Mikel Merino was there for the tap in to win it.
In every metric but the final score, Spain outclassed them. A pregame injury doesn’t completely change the strategy though. Belgium was always going to put men behind the ball against this opponent. By the transitive property, there’s a gap between Belgium and Spain and a big gab between them and how the United States performed on Monday.
Golden Generation failing vs outperforming their limits:
Losing your veteran goalkeeper and two central midfielders is really tough. Still, Belgium were in the game by the scoreline. Without that mistake at the death, this game goes to extra time. Maybe they park the bus and get lucky in penalties. I wouldn’t have bet on it but could see it happening.
Despite playing a superior opponent and missing three starters, they had a puncher’s chance. They played compact and limited mistakes through 88 minutes. Against Senegal and Spain, they needed to be an immovable object. They showed resilience and toughness.
“In the big tournament, almost always we have done well… A lot of times we get criticism. ‘The Golden Generation never won anything.’ We are not England. We are not Spain. We are not Spain. We are a small country of not even 12 million people that on big tournaments is showing big things… There are things to be proud of,” Courtois said in mixed zone.
“It’s a pity it ended like this. But I think we can be proud of the tournament we played,” added Brandon Mechele.
Yes, in terms of winning a trophy, Belgium’s Golden Generation has failed. This will be their last World Cup. But in context, they’ve usually made it to the quarterfinal. They’ve usually been a tough out. The teams they’ve lost to have been traditional powers who are contenders at the time.
Transitive Property and comparisons to the USMNT:
The USMNT had their preferred starting lineup against Belgium and wilted at the first hurtle. There wasn’t the same togetherness, leadership, or toughness (physical or mental).
The United States is a top 15-30 nation at any given time. They’re clearly not a top 8 team in the world. And this week has made it evident how big the gap there is between them and quarterfinal teams. And then the gap between that and a World Cup favorite. The higher they climb, the bigger the step to the next level is.
With the expanded World Cup format, they’ll be a favorite to get out of the group. In a favorable matchup against a smaller team that defers to them (Bosnia), they’ll get through. It might not be pretty. But it’s expected. But for all the folks saying the USMNT needs to join CONMEBOL or stop playing regional minnows, this is why. That next step in quality against Belgium, or the Netherlands, they haven’t taken it.
The World Cup has gotten bigger and better. The path to get back to where they’ve gotten has gotten easier. And yet, the journey to go further felt so far away after their loss to Belgium. Even further after Belgium’s loss to Spain.
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Eamon Shaw 
Spencer Baldwin 