Editorial – Earlier this month, Colorado Rapids transferred Lucas Herrington to Hull City for a club record $17 million with $6 million in add-ons and a 15% sell-on clause. Colorado is on the brink of selling DP striker Rafael Navarro to St. Louis City for $12 million. They are also reportedly close to signing Maccabi Tel Aviv striker Sayed Abu Farkhi for $6 million. See our transfer tracker for the latest details on these and other moves.
The Rapids are on the brink of having their biggest transfer window in club history in terms of profit from sales and money spent on acquisitions. And all with President Pádraig Smith in the final four months of his contract. Smith has been the club’s top executive since 2018.
The next three days could be the most critical in the club’s history post-2010. A top young player and your proven DP sold for big money. A chance to reinvest money from those two seismic departures and work in the transfer in ways this small budget club has not previously had. The Rapids FO will do its most significant Rapids Math. They may not get a chance to level-up the club in this way so quickly ever again.
“We will be bold. We are going to be forceful in what we do here. We are going to look to improve this team in the attacking half because I think we’re very strong at the back. We’re in a really good way there,” Smith said.
Smith confirmed to Burgundy Wave that ownership has given approval for them to fully reinvest the Herrington money back into this transfer window. One would assume the same will be said of the Navarro sale. Colorado’s won five home games since the restart after the World Cup. But the club knows they need to upgrade in the attack.
“It hasn’t quite gone that way recently, despite the dominance on the field, but we will be looking to reinvest this money and to make sure that the quality is on display and the competition is where we need it.”
There have been numerous reports about Sayed Abu Farhki coming in and being a big get for the club. His rumored transfer fee is $6 million. That would be the second highest in club history after Paxten Aaronson’s $8 million. That was funded by the sudden sale of Djordje Mihailović plus some funding from KSE.
“When you have a sale like we have, and you have that money to reinvest, we have to be bold and move other players out. That’s something we have to evaluate too, in an effort to get us what we need in,” Smith said.
The Navarro sale was unexpected but not shocking. There’s some logic to it. Smith may have been alluding to the eventual departure of Dante Sealy as well. Sealy was a massive disappointment at $1.9 million in GAM plus $600 in add-ons. Colorado sent him back to Montreal for $1.4 mill GAM plus $300K in incentives.
Let’s do some math to see how much money the club has. Herrington was sold for an initial fee of $17 million. Agent fees are about 10%. Let’s assume the club maxed out the GAM conversation option for Herrington and Navarro. That’s $3 million.
Herrington: $17 million x 90% – $3 million = $12.3 million
For Navarro, the MLS roster rules don’t seem to have player or agent fees taken out of the fee. That looks like it will be paid separately by St. Louis. See below. That said, it’s not clear how MLS handles sell-on clauses. SE Palmeiras has a 20% sell-on clause. When you trade a player within MLS for GAM, he’s still an MLS player because single entity. Foreign teams don’t get a cut of GAM. Let’s assume this applies and take off 20% for Navarro.
“A player traded for cash is eligible for and may receive an amount equal to 10% of the cash traded as part of the Player Percentage. The Player Percentage is the responsibility of the acquiring club as a part of the player’s Salary Budget Charge. A player may also choose to waive or amend the Player Percentage.”
Navarro: $12 million x 80% – $3 million = $6,6 million
Now let’s total the amount of cash, assuming Abu Farkhi is confirmed for $6 million. Let’s also total the GAM with the Sealy sale.
Total Cash: Herrington + Navarro – Abu Farkhi = $12.3 million + $6.6 million – $6 million = $12.9 million
Total Additional GAM: $3 million + $3 million + $1.4 million = $7.4 million GAM
Andrew Wiebe said on the Apple TV broadcast on Saturday that the Rapids had made a $10 million offer for another signing. That’s presumably the DP winger. A week ago, we thought the DP winger was going to compliment Navarro and Paxten Aaronson with the club moving to three DPs, 3 U22s. Abu Farkhi will be a U22 alongside Darren Yapi and Ted Ku-DiPietro. Navarro out, Abu Farkhi in makes it 1 DP, 3 U22s. Unnamed $10 million DP winger makes 2 and 3.
I think there’s another move to be had here. And I think it’s using the $7.4 million GAM. With those three sales, Colorado surely has the most GAM in the league. I think they can make another big move. They have enough cash and GAM that a DP could be an intra-MLS cash transfer or a GAM trade. Maybe the $10-12 million transfer fee is for U22 phenom. It’s less likely they make a GAM trade for a U22 player on another team.
I think there’s two signings made before the window closes, minimum. If Smith wants to be “bold” and “forceful” it should be three. I think there’s a possibility it’s Abu Farhki, the DP winger, and a move within the league for another DP, U22, or TAM level player. I don’t know if the way the ages and salaries works out that Colorado ends the window with all six roster spots filled between DPs and U22s.
When’s the next time Colorado is going to sell two players in one window for +$10 million, and sell them above market value? This is an opportunity for the club to catch up talent wise with most of the league. Abu Farkhi and their $10 million player cannot be busts.
It’s worth pointing out that Smith is making these consequential moves with four months left on his contract. These moves could earn him an extension. They could save his job. But also the Rapids hit rate on foreign signings hasn’t been great. If these 2-3 signings don’t work out, that money’s gone. When’s the next Lucas Herrington going to come along and give them another opportunity like this?
Plenty of MLS teams have spent $5-10 million on a signing and have it end horribly. Austin FC and Atlanta United have been money burn pits over the last few years. Those ownership groups keep reinvesting. If KSE sees the Rapids spend $20 million (GAM included) and it doesn’t work out, what happens?
By the David Gauss Theorem, any international signing this window probably needs the 2027 sprint season to be properly evaluated. We might not know if this window was great till the calendar shift for 2027-28. Plenty of personnel decisions will need to be made before then.
Or maybe they all ball out and Colorado sells again for +$30 million next summer. Colorado should go into the 2027 season with their three biggest signings by transfer fee on the team, all in the attack. It could be top four. Not bad for a club that three years ago their record transfer fee was $2.7 million.
It would be great if these players got their visas quickly and hit the ground running. Any player signed today would be do well to be available for the September 16 Open Cup Semifinal against St. Louis. MLS teams that switch out their best defender and best attacker midseason usually don’t peak in November.
The Rapids could be denting their chance at Open Cup, the club’s first real shot at a trophy since 2016. They could also start a pipeline that lets them compete financially for years to come. They could upgrade the roster to make this club a perennial playoff team capable of bringing a second MLS Cup back to Colorado. The Rapids Way might actually be coming to fruition. Or it could be two rolls of the dice on transfers that don’t work out and they’re stuck with contracts they can’t get out of.
Just another reason these next three days are critical and urgent.
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Eamon Shaw 
Spencer Baldwin 