Commerce City, CO– The Colorado Rapids host St. Louis today in what is the biggest Rapids home game in years. It’s the US Open Cup semifinals, and a ticket to the US Open Cup final is on the line. The last time the Rapids were in the US Open Cup final was not in this century, and they lost to a lower-division Rochester Rhinos. The only team stopping the Rapids is the league’s hottest team. St. Louis hasn’t lost a game in 13 matches. They have beaten the Rapids 1-0 twice in that stretch. Rob Holding had early red cards in both of those games. Colorado also sent Rafa Navarro to St. Louis within the month, but he is still cap-tied to the Rapids—a lot on the line in this one. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
When: Wednesday, September 16th @ 7:30 p.m. MST
Where: Dick’s Sporting Goods Park
TV/Streaming: Apple TV
Quarterfinal Win Months Ago
May 20th was the last time the Rapids played a match in the US Open Cup. They also welcomed the league’s hottest team at the time, the San Jose Earthquakes, to DICK’s Sporting Goods Park. Colorado ran out 2-0 winners with goals by Darren Yapi and Rafa Navarro. Dante Sealy got the only assist in the match. It will have to be a much different team, and different players will have to step up.
At the time, San Jose had won 11 of their first 12 games. They then went four winless going into the US Open Cup tie. Including the matches before the matchup, San Jose had one win in 14 matches. It looked like a tough matchup before the game, but San Jose fell off a cliff after their fast start. Some parallels exist between San Jose in May and St. Louis today. The big difference is that St. Louis is in the midst of their hot streak.
An interesting stat from the San Jose match was that the Rapids were largely second-best on the night. Almost every statistic went San Jose’s way, except for goals. That is a stark difference from what we have seen in recent weeks. It also shows that a Matt Wells-led team can not be the dominant force and still get a good result. It will be a largely different side against St. Louis, but the Midwestern side threatens to be the better side on the ball. This could play into the Rapids’ hands, as they haven’t looked good against teams who come to DSPG and bunker.
Lineup Prediction:
Hansen / Cannon, Holding, Williams, Navarro / Ojediran, Maziz, Aaronson / Philip, Yapi, Minoungou
Nico Hansen, the backline, and 2/3rds of the midfield feel like locks. The interesting conversations come from the front three and Youssef Maziz.
Maziz should be a starter 100%. It’s just a question of whether he is fit enough after his injury against Austin took him out of the Montreal game. The front three feels like it could have a million different combinations. Newcomers Sayed Abu Farkhi and Morgan Whittaker are the long-term starters, but with less than a week on the field with the team, it’s a question mark whether Wells trusts them enough to start.
With this being a cup tie, 120 minutes is a real possibility. This favors starters who come out at a fixed time in the second half. Fitness is a real concern for the two new forwards. Forcing them to go 30 minutes more than expected could be costly. It is a real headache decision for Wells. Whittaker was exceptional off the bench against Montreal. It would be great to have that come in later, when crunch time begins. Wells will have to play around minute restrictions. Wells has a lot to think about.
St. Louis and How to Beat Them
It’s the question that hasn’t been answered in St. Louis’s last 13 games. They are flying right now. The good news for the Rapids is that their flashy new striker is cup-tied to the hosts. Rafa Navarro will not suit up for St. Louis. The bad news is that St. Louis has done this before Rafa showed up.
St. Louis will play a different style than the Rapids’ last six home opponents. St. Louis will almost play the same game as the Rapids. High press, play out of the back, try to keep possession. They will hound the center backs on the ball. It is what got them both of the Rob Holding red cards in the two previous matchups. Much of this matchup will come down to who plays their style better. Which team will keep the ball better, and which team will be caught in possession?
Colorado will also have to be much more clinical in this matchup. They won’t get as much possession as they have in their last few home games. The Rapids won’t be able to waste their possessions and chances. Not if they want to win. The version of this Rapids team that can beat this St. Louis side hasn’t been seen since before the World Cup break. However, new additions and a team due for a good offensive performance make this a winnable game. Colorado will have to make it happen. St. Louis hasn’t been in the business of giving away wins.
Prediction: Colorado can’t get it going against a very good St. Louis side. The Rapids lose 1-0. Possibly another Holding red card.
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Matt Pollard 
Eamon Shaw 