San Jose, CA– It is a midweek trip to California for the Colorado Rapids (12-6-13, 8th West) as they take on the San Jose Earthquakes (13-9-9, 4th West) for the third time this season. The Rapids have two home games against the Earthquakes: a 2-0 win in the US Open Cup quarterfinal and a 1-1 draw just weeks ago. This is the first time these two meet in San Jose, where the Earthquakes have hardly made it a fortress. San Jose has been one of the best teams on the road this season (7-5-4, tied for best in the West), but has a poor home record (6-4-5, 4th worst in the West). It is rare for a team to be better on the road than at home; if San Jose can figure it out at home, they could be very dangerous come playoff time. Let’s look at the matchup.
When: Wednesday, October 28th @ 8:30 p.m. MST
Where: PayPal Park
TV/Streaming: Apple TV
Much-Needed Win Against Top Team
The Rapids broke their six-game winless streak when the Best in the West Vancouver came to town. It wasn’t flashy, and it fell far short of perfect. The lone goal was the best example: Morgan Whittaker bundled home a rebound off the crossbar from less than a yard out. The buildup to that goal also shows a good example of this game. Colorado built from the back, through Hansen, and found almost everyone on the field before Vancouver could touch the ball.
This felt like the best example of Matt Wells’ ball that we had gotten all season. Colorado shared possession with Vancouver, which felt inevitable given both teams’ styles, but Colorado squashed Vancouver’s attack while staying dangerous themselves. It wasn’t an all-out attack, but it didn’t need to be. According to FotMob, Colorado put up 1.87 expected goals and held the best team in the West to a measly 0.36 expected goals. If you can replicate this stat line every game, you will win a whole bunch of games.
An underrated part of this team is the centerbacks’ ability to physically dominate opposing strikers and take them out of the game. Brian White is one of the league’s best strikers. He was a complete non-factor. White won only one of his seven duels, took no shots, and created only 0.02 xG in the 90 minutes. All without him being fouled even once. He had 22 touches all game. It’s not great when your keeper has triple the touches as an attacker, as Vancouver did.
Colorado can now afford to look up as well as down in the standings. Seattle are one point ahead of Colorado in 7th place. That would help Colorado avoid the wild card round. Still, Real Salt Lake is three points behind Colorado in 10th, so the Rapids’ playoff spot is not yet confirmed. The last three games are crucial.
Lineup Prediction:
Hansen / Thompson, Williams, Holding, Navarro / Ojediran, Aaronson, Frederick / Whittaker, Abu Farkhi, Philip
It’s the same four players as last week. Reggie Cannon couldn’t make it in time. Youssef Maziz and Ibrahim Sadiq remain question marks as to whether they will see the field again this season.
This lineup prediction is based on the strongest available lineup without the usual Wells wrinkle to keep the other team on their toes. We saw Whittaker as a striker against Vancouver. He wants to be very unpredictable, while still in a similar system and style of play. This unpredictability will likely lead to changes, depending on the opponent.
Also:
San Jose Since We Last Saw Them
San Jose got a decent 1-1 result against the Rapids on October 10th, then replicated it twice before losing 3-0 to FC Dallas in Dallas. They were able to get a point against the now-Supporters’ Shield winners, Nashville SC. They had a much more disappointing 1-1 draw against RSL, though they did score a last-minute equalizer, which felt a touch better. The 3-0 loss to Dallas is also a bit misleading, as Dallas scored all their goals after the 83rd minute. Dallas were by far the better team on the day, but San Jose were seven minutes plus stoppage time away from getting another impressive draw.
It’s now four winless for San Jose, starting with the 1-1 draw against the Rapids. San Jose’s season can be described as a roller coaster. They started out with a historic nine wins in 10 games. Then went one win in 14. They’ve been undefeated in their last nine, except for their last game. It’s also a winless streak of 10. They seem to be on the downslope again, which could benefit the Rapids.
The Colorado Rapids could clinch a spot in the top nine and therefore clinch a playoff spot with a win against San Jose, while RSL and Portland both lose/draw. The Rapids will want to avoid the wild card if possible, but it would be nice to guarantee some postseason soccer in Colorado.
Prediction: Colorado are able to take advantage of San Jose’s lackluster home form, but not to the fullest extent. It’s another 1-1 draw for San Jose.
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